New Polling Finds Extending Healthcare Tax Credits Moves Voters in Tough GOP Incumbent Senate Races, Strengthens Path to Republican Majority

Voters in Maine and Alaska support extending enhanced advanced premium tax credits and will reward Senators Collins and Sullivan for doing so

WASHINGTON — Plymouth Union Public (PUP) Advocacy, a conservative non-profit organization that aims to advance public policies that make America stronger and more prosperous, today released two new polls showing that extending Enhanced Advance Premium Tax Credits (eAPTCs) is overwhelmingly popular in the hotly contested Senate races happening in Maineand Alaska and would increase Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Dan Sullivan’s (R-AK) standing with key voters. 

Findings from the Maine and Alaska polls suggest general election voters in each state are concerned by the looming expiration of eAPTCs, and pro‑extension votes by Senators Collins and Sullivan produce measurable ballot movement that increases the chances of Republicans holding the Senate majority in 2026.

Key findings from the Maine poll, conducted by Cygnal, include:

  • Sen. Collins  starts the 2026 race in a challenging position, trailing a generic Democrat by 8 points (41% – 49%)
  • If Collins votes to extend the credits, she gains a net +6 on the ballot, moving her race to a statistical toss‑up (43% – 45%).
  • 73% of Maine general election voters are worried about the tax credit expiration, and 69% want Congress to extend the credits. 

Click here to read the full Maine poll memo.

Key findings from the Alaska poll, conducted by the Tyson Group, include:

  • Sen. Sullivan’s job approval sits at 37% approve / 47% disapprove. Despite a R+3% advantage on the generic congressional ballot, Sullivan currently trails a generic Democrat by -4% (39% – 43%).
  • Among undecided voters, 43% are more likely to back Sullivan if he extends the credits48% are less likely to support him if he lets them expire.
  • After learning “[n]early 20 million Americans…purchase their health insurance directly on the individual market” and “rely on tax credits to help afford the cost of their monthly premiums,” 70% of respondents support extending the credits, including a majority of Republicans (52%).
  • 63% of general election voters in Alaska want action and say Congress should extend the credits, including 78% of moderates and 68% of independents.

Click here to read the full Alaska poll memo.

Why it matters: Maintaining and growing the Republican Senate majority is essential to continue implementing President Trump’s affordability agenda. Extending premium tax credits prevents a health‑care tax hike on working families, aligns with the President’s priorities, and strengthens the coalition needed to advance his broader agenda.

BACKGROUND: 

  • In October, polling from five key Senate states, including FL, MI, NC, TX, and GA, found that extending healthcare premium Tax credits is a winning issue for Republicans.
  • In July, the President’s pollster, Tony Fabrizio, found that extending premium tax credits could be key for President Trump to hold his trifecta in the 2026 midterms.
    • The findings show that support for premium tax credits, and their extension, among Trump voters is overwhelmingly supported (68%) and swing voters support premium tax credits and their extension at a rate of 78%. 

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